Gophers #17 in BCS...
...I can't believe I just typed that.
October 26, 2008
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14 Comments:
I want to know who BG is rooting for this coming weekend.
My stance has been Iowa all the time no matter the circumstances. Iowa and Minnesota play the last game of the season. It could create quite a problem for me.
October 27, 2008 at 8:28 AM
So, how long before Brewster leaves?
October 27, 2008 at 11:38 AM
shut it Jan, we don't need talk like that... wait a minute- have you heard something? Do you know something? Do you know anything? Who knows what you know- and why don't we know what you know?
Let's have it BG...gophers or wildcats?
October 27, 2008 at 11:46 AM
I think predicting where Brewster ends up next would be an excellent office pool. I am going with Tennessee. If each coach keeps performing at their current levels for 2 more years I could see Brewster being the hot coach a program like Tennessee is looking for. Just wild speculation of course. My 2nd choice is Texas A&M if they don't turn around under Sherman.
October 27, 2008 at 12:41 PM
If he's rational, he won't be going anywhere anytime soon.
1. It's still entirely possible they finish 4-4 in the Big Ten and/or get crushed in a major bowl.
2. At the moment, he's all flash and no substance. No one wants to be Billy Gillespie. Most outsiders from programs that would be considered a legitimate step up and not just a lateral move would want 1-2 more seasons of success (I would think, I don't know). I mean, Syracuse might take him this minute, but what would be the point?
3. Brewster's made strides by boosting recruiting immensely, but he won't have the ability to do that at an established program that's higher up the food chain right now. Recent successes in those programs will indicate/lead to reaching closer to their natural recruiting ceiling. So, he could leave for another program that's fallen on hard recruiting times immediately, but what's the point of that when he's got a good thing going at a BCS school already? Unless it's somewhere like Nebraska or something, where past program history is greater than the U's, so the ultimate ceiling may be higher.
4. What better conference situation could he hope for right now? Any coach would be a fool to skip to the SEC, where it's just too danged competitive. The Big 12's getting that way, too. You get lost on the West Coast, and the Big East and ACC are weaker than the Big Televen without the history. The U's a rising commodity in a weak league that still has great bowl connections, and a couple of the teams traditionally ahead of them are flailing or on the downturn (Wisconsin, Iowa, Purdue, Michigan needs a couple more years to get back to the top. Also, Paterno will eventually quit). There's an opportunity here to become a top division squad for a good while.
5. New stadium's coming next year. Upside, upside, upside.
All that said, wild stab: Miami in 2010 (after he rides Weber's arm 'til graduation). Second guess is the aforementioned Nebraska. Third would be the Vikes.
October 27, 2008 at 2:53 PM
Guys,
I have always lived by the "who needs it more" rule. In other words, if the Wildcats are 6-2 and the Gophers are 2-6, then I root for the Wildcats (and vice versa), since our win would mean a lot more than a meaningless 3rd win for a team going nowhere. This has worked beautifully for the 16 years where I have faced this conflict (wow, did I really start college 16 years ago?), as the two teams have rarely been competitive at the same time, and the NU basketball team has been consistently horrendous (read: the Gophers always need the win more).
The Gophers fouled up my plan this year, however, by surprising everyone and starting 7-1. Add to that the fact that NU just lost its best player for the season (Tyrell Sutton) and its starting QB is out indefinitely, and NU is in a pretty desperate situation this week, with Ohio State, Illinois and Michigan left on the slate.
Bottom line: both teams "need" this win equally, but the tie-breaker goes to NU, since I spent 6 years of my life on the campus and the team could conceivably lose out, putting us in Detroit for bowl season. The silver lining is that I "win" either way, since I pull hard for the Gophers every other week of the year, and a win by them probably gets them to the Alamo bowl, at worst.
MCA, great analysis of Brewster's coaching situation. No chance he leaves after this season, and really no reason to leave at all, given the new facilities and flailing big ten competition. That said, I would guess he would jump at A&M, Nebraska or the select sub-set of 6 or 7 other "traditional powers", given the overall profile of those jobs.
October 27, 2008 at 5:46 PM
For those of you who have not selected where Brewster will be after the 2010 season, I would like to make one clarification. If you choose that Brewster will stay at the U, please specify if:
-He stays at the U Glenn Mason style, who so desperately wanted to leave but could not get a job.
-He stays at the U like Randy Shannon at Rutgers where he could have left but wanted to stay.
Still available for the picking: Illinois his alma mater, PSU if Bobby Bowden ever retires allowing Joe Pa to retire with the most wins or Auburn, assuming Tuberville can hang on that long.
October 28, 2008 at 8:54 AM
I believe that Brewster will remain with the Gophers through 2020, why would he want to go anywhere else?
-Goldy
October 28, 2008 at 11:07 AM
I understand your analysis, bg. Keep one other factor in mind, however, when determining "need." I don't usually follow BCS standings and who gets bids and how and which bowl hosts the national championship from year to year and all that b.s., but I did some poking around and I think I do know this: if the Gophers win out, Ohio State gets upset once in the next three games (at NW, at IL, MI), and any of Penn State, Texas or Alabama lose a game, the Gophers play in the Rose Bowl for the first time in 40+ years.
I'd have to set the odds on all that happening at 15% or less, but that's better than the usual 0%. Penn State should easily win out. 'Bama plays at LSU still, and both the Big 12 and SEC have conference championships, too. Stupid as it may be, if one of them loses a conference championship, an undefeated Penn State probably gets in the title game, leaving the Rose Bowl for the 2nd place Big Ten team. Ohio State dropping one is probably a 50/50 proposition; they'll be vulnerable at Illinois (but looking for revenge). Probably one in three the Gophers do their part.
October 28, 2008 at 12:06 PM
As much as I disagree with his politics (can you say "Red China"?) and his belief that it was actually Jackie Kennedy who shot JFK, I have to agree with Luke in that Brewster is going to be the U's Joe Pa.
October 28, 2008 at 12:32 PM
Like I said, the silver lining is very thick for me if the Gophers win this week. The problem is, I don't necessarily trust them to take care of business against Michigan, Wisconsin and Iowa. I think they definitely beat one of those teams (probably Michigan) and "should" split with Iowa/Wisco, which would mean 9 or 10 wins, and likely a New years day bowl game.
I am very torn on the Penn State situation. If they make the title game, everyone in the conference slides up a spot (assuming OSU goes to the Rose Bowl), meaning that the Gophers end up in a news years day game. On the other hand, if PSU embarasses themselves against Texas/Bama, then that simply sets the conference back again. Also, I would be concerned about the Gophers playing an SEC team on New Years Day...
The Gophers in the Rose Bowl? Yikes...like MCA said, there is a 10-15% chance of that happening. They are probably a year away from being a legitimately solid, top-tier Big Ten team.
As for Brewster...I predict a Gary Barnett-esque career (minus the discrimination lawsuits at his next job). I think he stays until 2012 or so, taking the Gophers to a couple of prestigious bowl appearances, before having the program "regress to the mean" and giving in to temptation and succeeding Mack Brown at Texas, or Zook at Illinois.
October 28, 2008 at 1:21 PM
My understanding is that the Rose Bowl takes the Big 10 and PAC 10 conference champions unless their in the championship game, at which point they have the choice of taking anyone. Assuming this is correct I see a couple of options, in descending order of likelihood:
1.) PSU v. USC
2.) Non Big 10 vs. USC
3.) Non Big 10 vs Non Pac10
4.) Ohio State vs. Non Pac10
That's it. I don't see how anyone in the Pac10, other than USC, makes it to the Rose Bowl. Scenario 3 and 4 assumes that USC is in the title game, which I still think there is a reasonable chance of that happening.
I also don't think it is likely that the Rose Bowl will pick Ohio State if the opponent is USC.. we all saw what happened the first time- and yes, I do think this Ohio State team is better than wk. 2 when they played in LA, but that game was SO one-sided I doubt they'll take a chance on OSU showing up- especially given the way that tem has performed in big bowl games over the past 2 years.
Gophers chances: I think MCA was being optimistic by putting 15% as the ceiling, but I think his point about there even being a sliver of a chance is spot on.. it's nice to be in that situation.
October 28, 2008 at 3:41 PM
See, like I said I don't know how the BCS works. Thanks for clearing that up, lh. I was operating under the assumption that if the Big Ten champion was in the title game, the Rose Bowl would get the second Big Ten team. So then we need Penn State and Ohio State to lose for us to win the conference in order to get there. I guess if the Gophers were to win out and finish second behind a title game-bound PSU, they might be in the Top 10 and more attractive to the Rose Bowl than Missouri or some of those other teams.
I guess it's not such a bad thing to not get a New Year's Day game watched by 40 million people against USC, though. That's just a 60-13 humiliation waiting to happen.
October 29, 2008 at 10:38 AM
One thing to note, the Rose Bowl does like to get a PAC 10 vs Big Ten match up even if it does not involve the conference champs. For example, last year they selected Illinois over some better teams.
October 29, 2008 at 11:15 AM
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