Vikes assessment at the 37.5% mark through the season
We live in a non-stop world where we never have enough time to take a step back and reflect on where we are 37.5% of the way through anything let alone a NFL season. Sure, "halfway points", "quarterly check-ins", "year-in-review" type stuff are easy but almost cliche, no?
I'd like to revisit my post from April 15, 2008 where I predicted a Vikes 8-8 season (not really taking credit for anything with that, I think you just have to do the math or be a fan) and let's look at where I thought we would be at this point:
Sept. 8: Vikings at Green Bay - Loss; Enter the Aaron Rogers era.
Sept. 14: Indianapolis at Vikings - Loss (blowout); you kidding me?
Sept. 21: Carolina at Vikings - Loss; just have a feeling we start 0-3
Sept. 28: Vikings at Tennessee - Win; NFL loves parity
Oct. 6: Vikings at New Orleans - Win (ugly); Plus, someone on the Vikes has an 'off the field issue' in the big easy
Oct. 12: Detroit at Vikings (noon, FOX) - Win; they suck
4 for 6 isn't too bad just needed to flip the Carolina and Tennessee comments.
Next I had:
"Oct. 19: Vikings at Bears (noon, FOX) - Win; they suck too"
The "they suck" part is wrong but I'll stick with predicting the win, hell, if Sunday's win is considered a "great win" by the Oracle of Offense Chilly, then picking us at Soldier Field isn't as crazy as it sounds.
4 Comments:
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October 14, 2008 at 1:50 PM
While at jury duty the past day and a half (I am on break until tomorrow at 9:30), I read the book Innumeracy. It basically talks about mathematical illiteracy and its consequences in the US today. As I read it I could not help to think of Sarah Palin and Michelle Bachman and their refusal to accept scientific notions or mathematical data. For example that Bachman believes that God introduced her to her husband when in fact the probability of her meeting someone she would love is actually quite likely. Don't get me started on the amount of rain needed for Noah's arc or the other bible stories.
Anyway, I am off-topic from where I was going with this. Where I was going was the concept of regression to the mean and the Vikings. The Vikings are amazing in that since they are always average, there is no regression to the mean. I guess that is what is so frustrating. If the Vikes did turn in a stinker of say 3-13, and followed it with the usual 7,8 or 9 wins, we might mistake this as progress and get our hopes up.
Jan, don't get down on your pick of 8-8, look at all the football gurus, say Peter King, and what they expected out of the Vikings. You knew more than they did.
October 14, 2008 at 1:57 PM
RTS - Insightful and very learn-ed response, you obviously did not attend any of the Clayton County Georgia schools. Actually I'm curious about the amount of rain needed for Noah's arc, I'd like to pull that out of my quiver at some inappropriate moment where I am arguing with the religious right (like Thanksgiving dinner with my in-laws.)
You can't get into an argument about 'facts' when your opponent believes that people and dinosaurs roamed the earth AT THE SAME TIME.
I think we should collectively write a book titled "1983 to 2008 - 25 Years of the Minnesota Vikings: Regression to the Mean?" Think about the possibilities. Ironically, in 1983 our record under Bud Grant was, yup, 8-8.
October 14, 2008 at 2:08 PM
"The book of Genesis says of the Flood that '...all the high hills that were under the whole heaven were covered...' Taken literally, this seems to indicate that there were 10,000 to 20,000 feet of water on the surface of the earth, equivalent to more than half a billion cubic miles of liquid!...it rained for forty days and forty nights, or for only 960 hours, the rain must have fallen at a rate of at least 15 feet per hour."
October 14, 2008 at 8:30 PM
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