Minnesota Twins : NY Yankees :: Washington Generals : Harlem Globetrotters
Part I (the facts):
In the wake of the latest (and last, but does anyone really think things will magically change across the street?) all-too-predictable Twins meltdown in Yankee Stadium, I've decided the Twins' utter impotency against the Yankees needs to be brought to the fore and vociferously bitched about. I am a very patient, low expectation, proud of my little engine that could Twins fan. Honestly. So, please excuse the theatrics, and cover your children's eyes. I'm mad as hell, and I'm not going to take it anymore! I will not fucking stand by and watch us get shelled time and time and time and time again by this fading, aging has been dynasty any more without speaking up. It's one thing to struggle a bit against the king of the hill. This is quite another, and frankly, in case you hadn't noticed, it's got me infuriated. I simply can't take any more shoulder shrugging at this incomprehensible futility.
So, to prove that this isn't all in my head, I've crunched some numbers. These are all contained within the otherwise highly successful Gardenhire era, from 2002 to the present. 4 playoff appearances, 5.5 winning seasons in 6.5, one ALCS appearance. So, bear in mind we're not talking about a bad stretch generally in which our totally fucked mentality against the Yankees doesn't stand out from generally poor play or something. Other than the fact that we haven't won a World Series in this current run, these are basically glory years for a small market franchise like ours. Here's where we're at, then, in the Gardy era, when it comes to the Bombers:
1. The Twins have THE WORST RECORD IN THE AMERICAN LEAGUE AGAINST THE YANKEES.
2. IT IS NOT EVEN CLOSE.
3. 9-14 at the Dome, 3-19 (THREE AND NINETEEN!!!) on the road. That's 12-33 overall, a .266 winning percentage. Just for fun, if we played a full season as pathetically as we play the Yankees, we would finish 43-119, with an impressive 11-70 record on the road. Not once have we taken a season series over the Yankees in the period in question. (Notably, in TK's last season, we did, finishing 4-2 and winning a series in Yankee Stadium. Somehow this occurred even before the glorious birth of the full-time majors career of Johan Christ Santana.)
4. Over the same period, the Yankees have played .600 baseball (647-425, .6035). Against teams other than the Twins, they're 614-413, or .5978.
5. Thus, if the Twins played as well as just your average .500 team, they should expect about a .400 winning percentage against the Yankees. This would lead to an 18-27 record. So, basically, we've dropped a game a season to the Yankees when compared to the mythical .500 team. That doesn't sound like much, but considering the fact that with the unbalanced schedule we've actually only played the Yankees less than 6.5 games a year over that span, it's completely astounding. Every season, we basically have to face the Yankees less than any other team in the league, and yet we still spot everyone at least one game in the standings based on our performance against the Yankees. That is appalling.
6. Of course, the Twins are not your average .500 team. During the Gardy era, the Twins are significantly better than .500. They sport a .5494 winning percentage over that period (589-483), and .5618 against all teams other than the Yankees. A roughly analogously successful team generally during this period might be, say, Oakland (599-474, .5582). How have they fared against the mighty Yankees and their unfathomably powerful mystique, you might ask? 25-32, .438.
7. The Kansas City Royals, most likely the worst team in the American League overall since 2002, are 14-36 (.280) against the Yankees in that span. The Tigers, who prior to 2005 could claim that mantle of worst team in the AL, are 17-31 (.354). The [Devil] Rays, who other than this season have generally been atrocious forever? 43-80, or .350. The WORST teams in the league are significantly better against the Yankees than the Twins are.
Part II, entitled "In What World Is This Possible?" to come, in which theories for this atrocity are explored, and we can brainstorm on what needs to be done.
I do mind, the Dude minds. This will not stand.
5 Comments:
wow.. loved the venimous diatribe MCA....indeed appalling results.
I've never looked into the numbers like that, but I knew that it was lopsided...this may just be my tinted memory, but I don't ever remember a time (and when I say time I mean a period of 2 seasons or more) when the Twins weren't dominated by the Yankees... I'm sure that isn't correct, it just feels that way.
Maybe I should become an Angels fan...and allow my Twins Fan to live vicariously through my new found Angels Fan- they seem to be able to consistently take the Yankees...
July 26, 2008 at 7:13 PM
MCA - Bravo to you sir. After the Twinkies dropped their latest 3 game set and you said you were going to investigate I waited with excited curiousity at what you would produce and you did not disappoint.
When you look at the numbers it is just unbelieveable. After we dropped that last game in the series I texted BG grasping for answers, his response "Defies logic dude." And when you look at that .266 winning percentage, it does defy logic. No wonder why New Yorkers thinks we're a fly over state and basically ignore us; funny thing is that I would say that in our "baseball world" the Royals are to us what we are to the Yankees but I can't say that since they have have a better record against the Yankees than we do.
The worst part is that we will never dig out of this gaping hole of ineptitude. Our children will have to grow up hearing about how bad the Twins overall record is against the Yankees.
I think we need to examine TK v. Yankees and Gardy v. Yankees to try to get at some granularity about what exactly goes wrong against this team.
July 28, 2008 at 8:32 AM
This is the hard hitting jounalism that this blog needs to be considered a contender in the blog community or at least to warrant a donate link. I am not sure what more I could add other than I knew the Twins were terrible vs the Yankees, but I did not suspect they were this bad.
Back before the Twins resurgance, the dark days, I remember the Twins swept the Yankees in the dome. Had a person bet $100 on the Twins for game one and then let those winnings ride on the Twins for game 2 and then doing the same thing for game 3 the payout was something ridulous like $2700. Sure, it is not really related to MCA's point, but it is somewhere off in the rough.
July 28, 2008 at 10:09 AM
MCA - tremendous. Great use of data and statistics to support your point...one would think you were a lawyer or something.
Honestly, this is better than 95% of the stuff that appears on the major "network" websites, and rivals any of the best blogs out there in the blogosphere.
Great work...the dude abides.
BTW, if we lose the division to the White Sox, we will likely be able to look to this series (as well as the disaster back in june) as the main culprits. However, the road sweeps at Boston and NY will be a close second.
July 28, 2008 at 1:29 PM
OK, I've realized since posting that #2 on my list of items should have been caveated, to read "with the exception of the Kansas City Royals (some consolation), it's not even close."
Anyway, TK against the Yanks: 66-80, .4521. Kind of apples to oranges, and kind of not. On the one hand, the Yankees have been consistently excellent throughout Gardenhire's career, while they were nowhere near their current selves in the late '80s/early '90s. On the other hand, from '93-'99 Kelly was handed a series of total dogs featuring Kirby Puckett with absolutely nothing else. I haven't added up the compared cumulative records of the two over TK's years, or looked at the success of others.
Nonetheless, when the Yankees were making World Series left and right and the Twins were mired in some of the worst seasons in franchise history, they still managed a more than respectable .4118 (20-33) from '94 through 2001.
So, let's make Part II open for everyone. One theory of mine is that these TK numbers may have something to do with basic familiarity from playing them a lot (12x/yr. until the unbalanced schedule, then typically 9 or 10 until 2001). By the time Gardy took over the ship, the Yankee mystique was fully established, the team turned over swiftly with the arrival of Mientkiewicz, Hunter, et. al. and we got just a home and away every year. New manager + young team = what Kelly may have been able to overcome in terms of intimidation factor was lost, as the Yankees had just won like 4 out of 6 World Series. Then you only get 6 games a year to get accustomed to facing ARod, Jeter and Rivera and get over that intimidation. You feel even more pressure than you normally would to take at least 2 of 3 at home.
Doesn't necessarily excuse anything, but it should be noted we went 0-fer in 2002 and 2003, and have improved somewhat since then. If (a big if) we win 1 of 3 in the final series with them this season, though, it'll be 3-7 (5-13 in two years) and the backsliding will be complete.
Is it coincidence or noteworthy that, with Torii and Johan as the team's face and clubhouse leaders, we at least treaded water against the Yankees, while Joe and Justin's team cannot get a handle on them? Might have something to do with leadership styles. I don't see Mauer giving a Herb Brooks "I'm so tired of hearing how great they are" pep speech.
July 28, 2008 at 7:12 PM
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