Book of Numbers: Gamblor's Return
Fall is hands down my favorite season of the year. Finally, the heatwave of summer passes. I was always one of those kids that did not mind going back to school. It also helps that the end of summer signals the start of football. I am still working under the efficient market theory. Any research I might be able to do is already priced into the spread so I might as well shoot from the hip. Going for 2 winning seasons in a row, here we go:
$100 Miss St -27.5 @ Memphis. I am a sucker for a good "tomato can" crushing. Miss St won 49-7 last year. I do not think home field advantage is going to make up the difference this year.
$50 Boise St -3.5 vs Georgia (Neutral site, sort of, in Atlanta). Sure the last marquee game Boise lost was to Georgia, but you just do not bet against these guys when they have to prove themselves to the big boys.
$25 Indiana -6.5 vs Ball St. Indiana has a pretty good track record against teams they should beat. The problem is they do not have that many opportunities.
$25 LSU +1 vs Oregon (neutral site, Arlington Texas). I can not bet on two SEC teams to outright lose. I don't think Jordan Jefferson will be that missed for LSU. Oregon has been the opposite of Boise in big games and their high powered offense has slowed down against tough defenses. It also gives me a dog in this weeks picks.
Games I like but can not put the mythical bankroll on:
UNLV +35 @ Wisco. Wisco is a slow starting team so I should be on UNLV, but it goes against my can crushing nature.
Minnesota +21 @ USC. USC really did not whip anyone bad last year. However, I think there are better games than Marquis Gray's first game at QB.
4 Comments:
Not a bad start, Gamblor. You were 3-1, I believe, and you would have split the other games you liked.
As most of you know, I attended the Gopher game at USC on Saturday, and the fact that they had a chance to win that game outright is equally an indictment on Lane Kiffen (for foolishly going for two points after the opening TD and for his team's near meltdown after dominating the first half) and proof that Jerry Kill is already changing the culture at the Bierman complex. The entire vibe around the team feels different. You can just tell that they will play hard and that the fans will appreciate it, even in defeat.
MCA - I laughed out loud at your suggestion that Decker is running crappy routes for Tebow and Quinn at Bronco practice. So great...and how awesome would it be if Weber beat out two former heisman finalists and "golden boys" from ND and Florida?
Vikes - I am cautiously optimistic. Remember the statistic: for the past 20 years (or something like that), 50% of the playoff teams have turned over from the previous year. That means that 3 of the 6 NFC playoff teams could easily be different this year. Why not us?
September 5, 2011 at 12:50 AM
Let the record show that this past Saturday a Gopher football team made better adjustments at the half than their opponent for the first time in at least 15 years.
The talent's not there to match the big boys at this point, but those kids played hard and they played fast once they got organized. I suspect we've seen the last of the losses to schools with "Dakota" in their name.
Apparently a lot of the first half problems and apparent disorganization was due to some malfunctioning headsets, which probably attributed to what looked like overly conservative playcalling.
September 6, 2011 at 12:41 PM
Very cool that you went BG. I do feel for you having to watch a game at that cesspool in the middle of a cesspool.
Just for the record I did go 3-1 and 2-0 on the games I did not go with (UNLV covered by a missed extra point). I can not really count those two. It should be known that two friends of the blog have thrown down the gauntlet and challenged Gamblor to a pick em contest through out the season.
Jan your quote after the FFl draft was "I do not know why everyone stayed away from Manning." You whammied yourself there my friend.
September 7, 2011 at 12:13 PM
Wait, is that the extent of the RTS FFL Draft Analysis 2011? For shame. I've been looking forward to the reviews all week, even though I know the conclusion for my squad: questionable QB's, probably stretched for both starters; WR's could turn out to be the biggest strength; RB needs one of the lower end guys to get enough carries to be productive; TE needs Manning to avoid being a wasted pick.
September 7, 2011 at 2:06 PM
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