.185 AVG, 18RBIs,1 HR, 33H, .570OPS thru 178ABs...
who is the proud owner of this line?
Nick Punto?..... no (but good guess, his are actually worse)
Adam Everett?... again, good guess, but no. (somehow that guy is hitting .284 this year)
June 2, 2009
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11 Comments:
I'll go with Big Over The Hill Papi.
June 2, 2009 at 5:23 PM
Nice work MCA.... I knew he ws struggling, but this was shocking to me.
Simmons has an article on him today- like you, he thinks it has more to do with age then being off of the juice, but I don't know. I want to believe he's been clean, and I certainly don't want to think guilt by association, but I'm shocked that the fall off from age would be this quick. Guess I'd have to see what has happened to other sluggers stats
June 2, 2009 at 6:21 PM
There was an article in the Strib last week by Souhan where he basically says this is the David Ortiz (F that 'Big Papi' shiz) Twins fans remember. My thoughts: he is off the juice and because of he doesn't have his 'secret sauce' he is freaked out and pressing things at the plate - and we know all about a below average Ortiz 'trying too hard.'
LH - I can't read Simmons anymore. Feel like I'm talking to some Masshole douchebag I went to college with; pronounce your f'ing "R's" people! It's "B-E-E-R" not "B-E-E-A-H-H!" Hate them so much.
June 3, 2009 at 11:27 AM
Oh, and how Nick Punto is hitting .187, 12 RBIs, 0 HR, .501 OPS, .290 OBP and is not living at an apartment in Rochester is beyond me. He needs a new name like "A for Effort; F for Results" or "The Had-One-Good-Year Guy." Sorry, I know, he hustles and collects defensive 'Web Gems.'
June 3, 2009 at 12:41 PM
Pretty good article on Ortiz.
http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2009/05/21/often_powerless_to_stop_a_slide/?page=1
While it omits any discussion of roids, it does talk about age, fundamentals and making adjustments. The real value though is that it does have some stats of power sluggers that fell off a cliff one year to the next. Remember how dominant guys like Mo Vaughn, Cecil Fielder and George Bell were? I hardly do either.
I have added stats to the ones that they have provided as well as thrown out some guys that nobody cares about, and I think it is clear that no one has had an all around implosion as much as Ortiz. Mo Vaughn is close but had he played in more than 27 games he may have flirted with double digit HRs.
Jim Rice
Year AGE HR SLG Games Hits RBI AVE
1986 33 20 .490 157 200 110 .324
1987 34 13 .408 108 112 62 .277
Last game: 1989.
Cecil Fielder
Year Age HR Slg Games Hits RBI Ave
1996 32 39 .484 160 149 117 .252
1997 33 13 .410 98 94 61 .260
Last game: 1998.
Mo Vaughn
Year Age Hr Slg Games Hits Rbis Ave
2002 34 26 .456 139 126 72 .259
2003 35 3 .329 27 15 15 .190
Last game: 2003.
Boog Powell
Year Age HR Slg Games Hits Rbis Ave
1975 33 27 .524 134 129 86 .297
1976 34 9 .338 95 63 33 .215
Last game: 1977.
Greg Luzinski
Year Age HR Slg Games Hits RBIS Ave
1983 32 32 .502 144 128 95 .255
1984 33 13 .364 125 98 58 .238
Last game: 1984.
George Bell
Year Age Hr Slg Games Hits RBIs Ave
1992 32 25 .418 155 160 112 .255
1993 33 13 .363 102 89 64 .217
Last game: 1993.
June 3, 2009 at 1:04 PM
Regarding Punto he is like Greg Gagne. The big difference being that Gagne played in a time when low production was OK from your SS or 2b as long as they were excellent in the field.
June 3, 2009 at 1:07 PM
LH, who are these other guys posting comments? I thought this blog was just you and me.
Agreed on the Simmons comment. His interesting ideas have all been used up, and his lens adopted by others. He doesn't have anything new to contribute substantively, so the schtick and the New England homerism stand out a lot more now. I haven't read him in three or four years. I still give him credit for revolutionizing sports columnitry (yes, I made that up), and for making it relevant for our generation, but I don't enjoy his writing anymore.
I have little doubt that at some point Ortiz was using something. So I think there may be some credence to Jan's theory, although I tend to downplay the effects of HGH and whatever else guys have been using in recent years. And Ortiz never looked, well, suspiciously musclebound to me, either.
Overall, though, I suspect it's a flukily speedy dropoff in production, fueled by a couple things.
First, body type. As noted above and like Cecil Fielder, as rts noted. He was successful in spite of his body, not because of it. The process of a large frame overwhelming superior timing, eye, etc., is a lot faster than the gradual deterioration of a fit body. Watch this happen to CC Sabathia starting in 2012, by the way, unless he sheds 50 pounds along the way.
Second, I think Ortiz is overly emotional - it helped him when he was playing well by making his confidence take on epic proportions, but it's obviously hurting him now as he's pressing and acting desperate and glum. He's never seemed emotionally mature enough to deal well with a prolonged slump, so now it's a 50+ games slump.
Third, he's just a straight masher. He started excelling at the plate in Boston when they just turned him loose, instead of having a consistent approach like the Twins tried to instill. Consequently, now that the mashing's gone, he doesn't really know how to become a hit to the gaps or go opposite way for singles guy to get the most out of his now more limited physical skills. He could learn that, but it'll take a while.
Where the hell is BG? Too busy nesting?
Jan, you coming next weekend for the Wrigley series, or any other time in June? I'll note one cool thing: the Cubs are on a 9 game road trip, so the Wrigley scoreboard was already set up for Minnesota/Cubs as of Monday and will be that way for another 12 days. Nice to walk past every night on the way home to get me fired up.
June 3, 2009 at 1:59 PM
I was thinking the same thing MCA... who are these guys.
RTS- value added. Loved the stat comparisons.. interesting to see a sampling off past fall offs. Also interesting to note that Vaughn is the closest comparison - who I believe was a major juicer. See it isn't just the cut guys like Sosa that benefit from the juice-it can help all body types... even yours Jan
June 3, 2009 at 3:31 PM
Guys - I get busy for a couple days and things blow up!! Nothing had changed forever so I immersed myself in work, nesting, etc. since FTLOSBW was slow.
LH - thanks for stirring the pot on Kobe vs. Lebron vs. Jordan. Lebron definitely has the higher ceiling, but Kobe is more clutch right now. And yes, I can't stand his smugness either. Lebron is, by all acounts, the better teammate as well (recent poor sport antics notwithstanding).
I had a huge Ortiz discussion with the husband of a Chicago friend of ours from back in the day (Fix), and we concluded age had to be the primary culprit. Ortiz has always had that Greg Oden look to him, which tells me he's closer to 40 than his listed 33. Love MCA's masher theory, too. He was no good at taking what the pitcher gave him in MN, so now that he can't mash, he's done.
I am over Simmons too, but I'll still read his non-NBA stuff, more for the info and opinion than the humor. His jokes have all been over-used at this point. I go to Deadspin for that stuff.
June 3, 2009 at 6:00 PM
We all go through ups and downs with postings to the blog, easy there LH and MCA. If we're calling people out we should all just turn on BG.
I am listed as 'questionable' for next weekend's series in Chicago. Will let you know.
June 4, 2009 at 11:01 AM
Cool. I've still got a ticket if you want to claim it, but I need to find someone to take it who's at least "Probable" so I don't eat the cost. I'll get someone else lined up unless you want it for sure.
June 4, 2009 at 6:14 PM
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