Gamblor speaks
This is my 3rd season as Gamblor. I have never posted a profitable season. I have yet to get a POW right this year. You all must say behind my back "No wonder he likes college football so much, he is surprised by the outcomes each and every week." Back in the day Gamblor used to have his bookie in college and eventually an offshore account (they used to send me a smoked turkey at X-mas). Let's just say these things were not done away with because I was running out of ways to spend the cash I made on the weekends.
The most annoying thing to a gambler (next to backdoor covers) are people who tell you "I can't believe you bet on team A, I WOULD have been all about team B." My response is that is great and all, but if there is no record prior to the game where you said that, then you didn't and I don't care. I am not saying a person has to wager anything to make their opinion count just voice it before the game is underway. Once I stopped betting, I became that guy with myself. I would see scores on the ticker and see all the winners I would have bet on and I rarely saw a loser. Along comes Jan with his blog and an outlet for me to put in writing all of these "winners" I was missing week in and week out. We can see why the offshore account has been shuttered and it has nothing to do with US laws against this sort of thing. Just for the record, the picks are my best effort each and every week.
20 Comments:
RTS - keep your head high, young man, and keep gambling with your fictitious dollars. I, for one, enjoy it, and will not be "that guy."
Good takes on the Vikes, fellas. I felt the same way. Many reasons for optimism, assuming the passing game comes around.
I love going to "the cell" up six games. Just take one out of three and I'll feel good heading into the home stretch.
OK, so there is still a huge, ugly, elephant in the room. Any guesses? Yes...TIM BREWSTER YOU ARE THE WORST COACH IN DIV-1 FOOTBALL HISTORY!! Can we have Glen Mason back, please?!?!? I couldn't stand the guy, but at least he won his 7 games every year and beat (most of) the teams he was supposed to beat, including all four non-conference opponents, be they D1 or 1-AA. BRUTAL! Gopher fans deserve better...they got their new stadium, sold it out, and now they deserve a team that is at least competitive. Any wagers on the USC game? Can they keep it within 40? Thank goodness USC is a bit depleted...can you imagine the Bush/Lienart Trojans vs. this Gopher team. Yuck.
Hey...I "guess" it could be worse, as we could be the ACC. VaTech was ranked and lost to James Madison. GaTech lost to Kansas, who lost to North Dakota State last week, Miami lost at OSU (in a game that could have been a 30 point blowout) and FSU got trounced at Oklahoma. When does hoop practice start, MCA?
September 13, 2010 at 1:51 PM
Kudos to you, Gamblor. While I like to mock you after a poor week of picks, I would never presume to know any better. As evidence I offer our respective FFL teams' performances in Week 1. Which means Jan should never, ever be allowed to speak a word about your prognostication skills.
That said, I might now start putting team names on pieces of paper and leaving them around the yard to see which ones the squirrels crap on so I can then compare those picks to yours.
Ditto on the "not thinking so little of Glen Mason anymore" comment, BG. South Dafuckingkota? That's an atrocity for which one should be tarred and feathered and forced to drink Amstel Light for the rest of his life. Way to take advantage of a couple down years for the Big Ten while Michigan reloaded and before Nebraska joined up. Denard Robinson might have 600 yards combined against the Gophers this year.
The good news out of the ACC stinking pile of feces is that (I know this won't sound possible) Duke is on the rise. Actually, that sounds incredibly possible, doesn't it? 'Cause it could not actually have fallen any lower than it was two years ago without the assistance of an earthquake. So, maybe this is the time to make some gains in the conference. Next year is more the target, as we have zero defense, but Miami/FSU/VT sucking doesn't hurt our cause too much.
Come to think of it, Gamblor, whatever the line is this coming week, take Alabama at Wallace Wade Stadium. Duke will allow 50 points minimum. They might score some - the offense appears to be for realz, but the defense couldn't stop Wake Forest and they 'aint gonna stop no Tide.
September 13, 2010 at 2:29 PM
I don't care, mock picks and my unfortunate ways anyway you want. I was just saying back in the day when I was down a couple $100 bucks, the last thing I needed was someone needling me about it.
Not that you were serious, but getting canned was probably one of the better things to happen to Mason. He has a good gig with the BTN. Minnesota was his ceiling as he got Heismaned by his alma mater Ohio St.
USC has not been on fire. If there was ever a time for Brewster to rally the troops, pull it together and get the biggest win of his tenure this is it.
I think I have mentioned it before, my former neighbor is ahuge FSU fan. In fact we are going down to the FSU / NC game in November. I told Mrs. RTS prior to the Okl / FSU game "I wish I could be the kind of guy who could root for Kevin's team, but I am not. I hope FSU gets crushed."
September 13, 2010 at 2:38 PM
Understood, dude, but keep in mind that this game you're going to is against UNC. Please reconsider whether you can't get on the Jimbo Express for just one day.
I like your positivity re: the Gophers and Brewster and there being a chance against USC. And I wish I could share it, but then I just can't quite get beyond this:
They just lost, at home, to the University of South Dakota.
I guess I'll have to climb aboard the Michigan bandwagon or something. Of the three teams I have any legitimate reason to pull for, they're the one that looks reasonably competitive. And in fact, having seen parts of both their games, I have to say Denard Robinson is pretty damned hard not to like. Better enjoy him before Rich Rodriguez runs him 462 times this season and his knees turn to powder.
September 13, 2010 at 3:49 PM
Two questions for Tim Brewster:
1. Coach, you brought in Marquis Gray as a highly touted high school quarterback. He has loads of natural talent so while Weber has been your mainstay how do you game plan to get Gray involved in the offense?
2. Coach, you suck balls.
I guess the second one wasn't really a question.
Can we talk about Joel Maturi, UofM AD for a second and his responsibility in all of this? I mean he gave Brewster an extension this past year. This is year 4 for Brewster, I would have fired him before his post-game press conference on Saturday.
LH - you're coming to town with Mrs. LH (a USC alum and huge fan) - thoughts?
September 13, 2010 at 4:56 PM
Again, I think I am not being clear. Brewster has the chance to rally the troops and pull the poker out of the fire with a win. I do not think that is going to happen. I am just saying if there was ever a Glen Masonesque fluke football being kicked by a diving wr to setup a game winning FG against PSU, this is it. Gamblor will be on USC up to 20 pts. I guess Brewster has that going for him.
Maybe this one time I could really pull for FSU. I always wear an FSU shirt but am never disappointed when they lose. We road tripped to see FSU play 3 times, twice at Clemson and once at Tallahassee vs Clemson. Clemson won all 3. I suppose if I was going to pull for FSU 1 time against NC would be as good of a time as any.
September 13, 2010 at 7:10 PM
My dad sent me this "poem" about Brew. So funny:
Our team is a joke,
our program's a mess.
Time to figure it out, Brew.
This isn't checkers, it's chess.
You came with no experience,
your resume's funny.
How'd you get the job, anyway?
Does Maturi owe you money?
I'm sure your interview
with him was a dandy.
He loves you so much,
he'd probably give you a handy.
You promised Rose Bowls
and beating up Bucky.
Now we might win two games,
three if we're lucky.
You have the nation's third largest campus!
This team should run like a Lexus.
The only schools bigger?
Ohio State and Texas.
Perhaps you've heard of them.
They make winning look easy.
Meanwhile, your Gophs
make the fans feel queasy.
These games are unwatchable,
our chances of winning are slim.
We need change now!
Where's Barack when you need him?
I think that you care,
but I know that you suck.
So much so that you let
South effing Dakota run amok.
It's time for you to go,
you gave it a shot.
Go take your "talents" elsewhere.
Perhaps a used car lot?
You blew a great chance,
even attendance is now an issue.
Just get out already,
and take Weber with you!
September 14, 2010 at 12:40 PM
innocent question here, I swear.
who do you guys consider a good comparison for Minnesota football over the past 40 years? I know that you guys dominated in the 30s or 40s but I look at it and wonder if expectations might be a little out of whack.
In terms of comparison to what I know most (and I recognize that UM has probably been better over time), I see more of Iowa State type of performance than a top echelon BCS program.
If you put college football into 4 tiers, (elite, strong contenders, BCS wannabees and other) Minnesota probably falls in the 3rd, right?
Just curious on where you guys are coming from on this.
September 14, 2010 at 1:02 PM
I'll take a stab at tapani's questions:
Part 1
Without looking too deeply into the numbers, I would guess Iowa State's probably not a bad comparison in terms of actual results over the last few decades. We're definitely in that third tier right now. Some differences kill the analogy, however - ISU is second banana in its own state; ISU has no historical success (two and three generations ago or otherwise); ISU is in Ames, as opposed to the largest metropolitan area in the upper midwest. Minnesota was, at two separate points ('34-'41 and '60-approx. '67), in the first tier, and has been in long, slow decline since, while to my knowledge Iowa State's never been there. I mean, they're all 50 or more years ago, but 6 national championships is 6 national championships. It's too far back to be of much leverage in the modern era, but as long as our dads and grandfathers are alive, there's a feeling of remorse over falling so far from those heights. We should be more similar to Arkansas than Iowa State, but other than having a few years of Lou Holtz in common, the similarity is closer to ISU. A program with 6 national titles and 650+ wins shouldn't be looking at a program with a lifetime sub-.500 winning percentage as an equal, especially in a sport as unfluid and as friendly to traditional powers as college football.
Speaking only for myself (although I think it probably applies to most of us here), expectations generally are for a Gopher football team that usually carries at least one of Floyd of Rosedale, the Little Brown Jug and Paul Bunyan's Axe in its trophy case, regularly plays in bowl games, some of them after Christmas, wins some of those bowl games, and once every decade or so comes into a season with a legit shot at a BCS game (whether they get there or not). None of those are happening right now.
Deep down, I'd be happy for another 20 years if the Gophers could somehow sneak up on everyone and make just one Rose Bowl so that they won't be carrying the longest Pasadena drought of any Big Ten school, and let Indiana carry that burden for a few millenia. No one here's looking for or expecting to leapfrog Penn State or anything. But passing at least two of Purdue, Illinois, Northwestern and Michigan State seem like reasonable goals, which should be achievable with a bright, shiny new facility and the rest of those programs (other than NU) in some level of distress or (NU) with limited ceilings. We haven't managed to get past any of them.
September 14, 2010 at 2:31 PM
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September 14, 2010 at 2:33 PM
Part 2
Some of our current angst stems from (at least) the following factors:
1. the last coach at one point had the program on the cusp of better than average things. He'd put together a system that consistently produced a top 10 in the nation rushing offense, and threatened some top third of the conference finishes. Unfortunately, his teams had a propensity for calamitous 4th quarter collapses, an inability to rely on their strengths when it really mattered, and bowl game heartbreakers, and he eventually went out in a ball of flames. But people could see the promised land and were hungry.
2. the AD then settled for an NFL assistant with no head coaching experience at any level, because he had a big recruiting rep. He's since been shown to be all hat and no cattle, failing to land significant talent and failing to develop what he does have. He's also gone through 3 OC's and 3 DC's in 4 years (I think), so there's no continuity. And he's clueless in terms of tactics. But, somehow, he just got a contract extension. I don't think it's warped expectations to count on a little better in this regard for a school with the resources Minnesota has. I mean, Duke got David Cutcliffe, for crying out loud! We settled for the Broncos tight ends coach.
3. this was all combined with opening TCF, and much "return to glory" nostalgic appeals.
4. we just lost to fucking South Dakota. Last year we lost to North Dakota State. We haven't beaten Wisconsin or Iowa since god knows when, but it hasn't been recent. So, basically, they're the worst college football program between Bloomington and Boulder, including both Dakotas.
That is inexcusable.
September 14, 2010 at 2:34 PM
This is not like Alabama pre-Saban, where people are upset and want the return to glory. This is a situation where Minnesota looks across the border at Wisco and says "What is so great about them? Why not us?"
It is not like Wisco has super fertile recruiting grounds. Until Wisconsin's rise in the 90's their history is pretty crappy. What advantage does Wisco have over Minnesota that makes them so much better? I think that is pretty much what it boils down to.
When they built the dome that was supposed to get kids from the warm states to come play for the U. After that failed to work the idea was if we could only keep the in-state talent in state, then they would be competitive. Now the new stadium and Brewster's recruiting reputation was supposed to bring the program back. It is year 4 and his record is marked by ugly losses and several close calls to FCS schools and teams from the Sunbelt.
Glen Mason figured out how to schedule 6-7 wins a year and make a bowl game more years than not. His first mistake was he was too over zealous over the OSU job that ultimately went to Tressel. Then he had several come from behind losses in the bowl games. People got sick of his smoke and mirrors and realized the program was going nowhere.
I think Iowa State is a pretty fair comparison. As an Iowa fan, ISU scares me more than Minnesota.
September 14, 2010 at 2:39 PM
MCA, I think you put it exactly right (particularly the angst of our father's/grandfather's who once saw the glory)
I nominate Tony Dungy for AD/Head coach. Sure, there is no way in hell Joel fucking Maturi and his bullshit leadership could pull it off (Tubby was a gift) but that's where the list should start not with some choade who coached the Bronco's tight ends at some point in his life (note: it wasn't like Brewster coached Shannon Sharpe or something either.)
September 14, 2010 at 3:22 PM
Well put, RTS and Jan. The recent success of Wisconsin provides stark contrast and pisses us off mightily. And we've found some un-f'ing-believable ways to lose to Wisconsin when we've had them wrapped up recently, too.
Overall, in the last 9 years in the 3 trophy games, the Gophers are...get ready for this...4-22. That's a mindfuck of almost Twins vs. Yankees levels. Each of Wisconsin, Iowa and Michigan have been vulnerable (or in the case of Michigan) worse in some or a majority of those years, and half those 26 games have been at home. Brewster's 0-8, and he'll be 0-10 shortly after Thanksgiving.
Oh, and I was wrong about losing to NoDak State last year. That was in '07. Last year we beat South Dakota State by a field goal, so I must have thinking about that. Or the time we beat North Dakota State by a score of 10-9 in 2006. Pathetic.
September 14, 2010 at 4:27 PM
Tapani - love the question, as it's a very relevant one. I don't have much to add, other than I don't think Gopher fans are expecting too much, just a team a la Michigan State that has the talent and ability to occasionally rise up and finish in the top 4-5 in the conference. The fans aren't asking for repeated New Year's Day bowls, just the occasional Outback/Citrus/Rose Bowl. RTS is right...the rise of Wisconsin is what really has people angry. Inherently, now that the U of M facilities are improved and they have an on-campus stadium, they (wisco) don't have a single inherent advantage.
It raises a good question about where the proverbial "bar" should be set, though, as Glen Mason executed his formula to perfection. But people finally realized what he was doing and expectations increased. In retrospect, people should have been okay with 6 or 7 win seasons and occasional upsets of Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State.
In terms of a proxy program...I'm thinking Missouri, Maryland, Cal (public school in big city), Georgia Tech (public school in big city)? Nobody expects them to be Texas or Ohio State, and they never will be in a Pro Sports town like Minneapolis. But there are enough people, like my dad, who went to the 1960 Rose Bowl and remember greatness, that the bar should be high enough that 6 win seasons aren't acceptable.
I love this blog.
September 14, 2010 at 4:31 PM
BG mentioning GT, now there is an idea. Why not go with a Paul Johnson type? A guy who is going to bring in a funky system, that they could run to perfection, that makes up for a lack of speed and talent. I would hate every minute of it, but it might just be crazy enough to work. It was not all that long ago that Joe Tiller brought the basketball on turf idea from Wyoming to Purdue. What did that get him? A trip to the Rose Bowl. Maybe the Gopher's already tried that with the Jim Wacker attack.
September 14, 2010 at 5:39 PM
Great discussion. All seems very fair. If I boil it down, it seems like 3 things feeding off one another. Strong legacy (albeit 50 years ago) got people fired up enough about the program to get a shiny new facility. New facility takes away one of the big outages for the program. Team still sucks (maybe worse than ever) and looks at 2 traditional rivals (Iowa and Wisconsin) playing on New Year's Day every year and is pissed. Comparison to Iowa State over the last 25 is very real and that makes it worse. That all makes sense to me.
I can say from the Iowa State experience that it is incredibly hard to break the momentum of mediocrity. Dan McCarney had some really good teams and a lot of great talent but had the similar come-from-ahead losses and lack of closing out games. Ultimately, that was his undoing in spite of the fact that ISU should have won the Big 12 North 3 years in a row. Then we went for a guy that was all recruiting (and got some decent guys) but couldn't coach his way out of a paper bag. that guy is now at Auburn and is attracting 5-star talent to overcome his lacking of coaching chops. Sounds like UM is in a similar trap right now.
I have a guy for you. Mike Leach. He's crazy as hell but he knows exactly what he's doing and would be able to recruit Texas and the South and scare the hell of a lot of teams in the Big #. He's out of a job right now and at least it would be fun to watch.
September 15, 2010 at 8:49 AM
Isn't Leach the one who shoved some former NFL player's kid in a closet or something? Don't know if we want to lower ourselves to that, but maybe there's another side to the story. One thing Minnesota definitely shies away from is shadiness. Clem Haskins taught them a few things. But I like tapani's and RTS's idea - bring in a rising star midmajor head coach with a unique system to gimmick you up to whatever the current ceiling is. Then you can use the system to get a star or two who wants to score a lot of points in college. Who's coaching Hawaii? Do they still throw for 500 yards a game?
September 15, 2010 at 9:44 AM
It is amazing that we long for the mason era. I dont want shadiness but I don't mind a few guys who are cast offs looking for a second chance (does clarett have eligibility?) As for coaches, how about someone who is a "coach" first and prgram promoter second? Run the wishbone for all I care just have kids who are taught what angles to take when making a tackle (I watched part of the sodak game and it was unreal how badly those kids played fundamental football.)
September 15, 2010 at 9:58 AM
My sense is that Leach got kind of a raw deal at Texas Tech. The player in question was the son of Craig James (of SMU Pony Express Fame), and it sounds like he was a complete prima donna and expected to start, despite not being good enough. So, when he started missing practices with a concussion, Leach told him to stay inside and away from the sun (which is what you do when you have a concussion). According to James, this is when Leach locked him in a utility shed of some sort. Many people believe the reason Leach was given such a quick hook is that there were simmering contract issues at play. Otherwise, he probably would have survived this situation.
The reality is that if he could recruit Lubbock, Texas and build that program up from nothing, he'd probably do a great job at the U. The question is how much stomach the donors and alumni have for a guy with a slightly checkered past. On the flip side, Leach graduated players...in fact, I think they had one of the highest graduation rates in D-1 (I need to fact check this). So, he's already one up on Clem Haskins there...
September 15, 2010 at 4:24 PM
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