Hadn't Counted on This Quite Yet
Nathan likely out for the season. I guess we should have tried to trade him at peak value - he was obviously starting to decline a bit the last few years. He was still great, but we all could see this coming, right? I have a feeling this was going to be the season he returned to just an average closer. So, anyway, our "who's our next closer?" discussion just got pushed up a year. Let's hope Neshek's really healthy.
Jon Rauch? Is that going to be our guy? Yikes. I know the closer position's overrated and all, but still. I'd go with Shaggy or Neshek over him, I think. Mijares?
5 Comments:
I am not worried. We have so much power, we are going to be leading most games 8-4 going into the ninth. The fianl score will probably be 8-7 but a W is a W. Also, it is not like Nathan could shut down the Yanks.
I am actually I little nervous, we haven't even started and we are down a guy. The guy who was the rock in an over worked pen. Let's hope the Jon Rauch for Kevin Mulvey trade pays some dividends.
March 9, 2010 at 12:03 PM
Yeah...this is not what we needed going into a season with such high expectations. I don't have the VORP analysis on Nathan handy, but I'm guessing he won us an incremental 6 or 7 games last year? I could be way off, but Mijares or Guerrier should be serviceable, especially with the revamped lineup, as RTS suggests.
Now, back to what TRULY worries me: WHERE THE F*** IS THE MAUER EXTENSION, BILL SMITH?!?!?
March 9, 2010 at 1:16 PM
I don't know that you can VORP a closer - there's just not enough of them, and within that small sample size is a small sample size of innings thrown. I'd have a hard time believing Nathan was worth more than 3-4 games over a decent but not All-Star closer. I mean, how many high leverage situations did we give him, anyway? He pitched what, 60 innings total? He probably finishes out the win 92% percent of the time instead of 88% when we're up 2 runs or less. And, as rts mentioned, he got it done exactly 0% of the time against the Yankees last year.
I will go along with the thinking that it takes a certain kind of mentality to be a successful closer, though, so the real question is whether or not we have that 88% guy in the fold and whether or not we find him.
To stop from freaking out, I'm going to take solace in that Caple article from awhile back and just repeat: Closers are overrated, closers are overrated, closers are overrated.
Ahh, here it is: http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=caple/080805
My current hope/prediction: Mauer's deal will be announced at the Target Field opening exhibition game against St. Louis.
March 9, 2010 at 4:20 PM
I love nathan and i hope he comes back. But i do think closers are overrated. Its huge in those few major key instances when you need them, but at the same time, we have twisted ourselves around to pull guys pitching great so someone can throw one inning and god forbid has to throw any more than that. It actually killed us in the playoffs. Not just the blown saves, but having to waste middle relief and setup men who were pitching well. I hope he comes back, but if not, i have to hope we find a surprise as so many closers have been. There are guys out there whose stuff is pretty good for six batters. can you say eddie guardado?
March 9, 2010 at 5:16 PM
Right on, dtk. Easy Eddie, shaky though he was, was that 88% guy. If he can do it, I have to think Guerrier or Mijares can do it. Although I have to admit, while I can say "Eddie Guardado" I can also say "Mike Trombley."
The good news is that, as per usual, every White Sox fan thinks they just won the Central yesterday. Full page picture of Nathan on the back of the Sun-Times today with the (lame-o) caption "'Bow Blow". They think the confidence boost they'll get from going into the 9th inning of close games against us and not seeing Nathan out there is now magically going to win games for them. I see two problems with this: 1. it's an admission that Joe Nathan dominated you so much you were scared of him - that's not what winners do; and 2. mental frame of mind doesn't really overcome numbers. You can't hit Guerrier, either. But if this is how they want to view things, that's fine by this Twins fan, of course.
Due credit should go to Paul Konerko, of all people, who (paraphrasing here) said "They'll just find someone else. They always do. They don't let things like this slow them down, and often things like this just make them rally together and get even better. I respect the Twins more than any other franchise."
March 10, 2010 at 9:06 AM
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