First analysis that I was able to find on the web
I'm sure there will be many more to come, but Rosenthal gives a pretty fair assessment. It's too early to judge this deal, but it appears Bill Smith blew it by not trading Santana at the winter meetings, when the demand was much more frenzied. That said, he also points out that the Twins deserve the benefit of the doubt, given our strong track record of swapping big names for boatloads of young talent.
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7734714/Twins-missed-out-on-better-Santana-packages-?MSNHPHMA
5 Comments:
We are gonna stew about this for a while with people saying the Twins are idiots and others saying we need to take the "wait and see" approach. I don't agree with the notion that we had our best chance at the Winter meetings. Look at it rationally, overall Smith was in a no-win situation. Sure, he could have played the "give us your best offer now or never" game in December but what team would have thought "Boy, the Twins really mean it this time" especially when everyone knew he was going to move him at some point? If he had made a deal back then (maybe for Hughes and Cabrera) we would have said "that's not enough for the best pitcher in baseball!" The Twins were betting that one of the three teams interested in Santana was going to blow up during April, May, or June and would want to make a deal for Johan that would have been much sweeter considering the desperation. I would have done the same thing.
I don't think that Smith was an idiot by waiting it out to the July 31st trade deadline. I think Santana got tired of hearing about it and when he turned down the Twins latest offer and his agents were saying he won't discuss it anymore once Spring Training starts, it backed Smith into a corner where he lost all leverage in negotiations. When you take risks, there aren't always rewards.
Yes, we gave up the best pitcher in baseball and beloved star for 4 prospects. Yes, it was not the deal we all wanted and were salivating over in December. Yes, we hate the Pohlads for running this team as a business. But at the end of the day, the TK-Gardy-Ryan-Smith 4 headed monster (along with all the scouts) have proven they can evaluate talent.
Sure, our rotation is a question mark. Nobody could fill Santana's shoes and everyone is young. But, we got the bat we always begged for in Delmon Young. We locked up one of our stars for 6 years, we signed another solid everyday player for 3, the 2006 batting champ is still here and so is our bullpen and closer (for the time being.) We aren't winning the AL Central this year with the Tigers and Indians as strong as they are but we are still the Minnnesota Twins and there is still hope. This ain't 1995.
January 30, 2008 at 1:08 PM
Or am I just talking myself into this?
January 30, 2008 at 1:10 PM
Who are you and what have you done with the real jan stenerud?
I'm trying not to be too hard on Smith - I know Santana in the end sort of screwed us from a leverage standpoint. And Smith would have been second guessed to death if he'd pulled the trigger in December. The 20/20 hindsight still hurts my eyes, though.
Going forward, Humber and Mulvey, other than their Seinfeldian names, appear pretty worthless. More mid-rotation starter ceilings in a system full of them. Gomez is a serious project and the fact he might step in as the everyday center fielder says a lot more about the Twins than it does about him. Guerra could be something special, but 50/50 will turn into nothing in particular, he's so young. These guys were apparently all in the top 5 or 6 prospects the Mets have. But their system's empty. They had major leaguers we could use.
I do have faith in the system as far as talent development and getting the most out of guys' potential is concerned, but we're relying an awful lot on that now.
I said to bg last night that this season is turning into one giant audition. Those who perform will get to stick around for 2009 and 2010, but some of the new faces we'll barely even get to know.
January 30, 2008 at 6:03 PM
MCA, you're right. In true Minnesota form I am trying to look at the bright side of once again watching one of my sports teams let a true star walk on by.
January 31, 2008 at 9:06 AM
Why this feels worse
Even though it pains me to see KG playing in green, on his way to winning a 2nd MVP, I still believe trading him was the right thing to do.
Although I hated to see his abilities leave the purple and gold, I understood why Moss was shipped out.
Hindsight has shown that letting Culpeper go was a relatively smart move....
While Ortiz has exploded in Boston, I remember his frustrating Twins' days when he was often out of the line up with nagging little injuries and hitting .230 with only a handful of homeruns..a little bit of bad luck with that, but who saw that one coming?
This one is different. Johan is in his prime, he doesn't have locker room issues, he brings (make that brought) national attention- and the Twins, while playing in what appears to be an uber-competitive AL Central- still showed the ability last year that they have the core players to compete with anybody and make the playoffs....
Maybe some of these prospects will pan out, maybe Johan's arm will fall off next year, but today- after 2 nights sleep on this, I still feel ill.
January 31, 2008 at 10:33 AM
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